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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.2 billion, indicating a 37.4% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at a loss of 15 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter earnings has moved down 66.7% in the past seven days. The estimate suggests a 110.4% year-over-year decrease.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COIN’s Disappointing Earnings Surprise History
COIN’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, the average negative surprise being 128.56%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for COIN
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Coinbase this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Coinbase’s Earnings ESP is +146.06%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 7 cents per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 15 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Coinbase’s third-quarter 2026 results are likely to benefit from recovering cryptocurrency prices, expanding derivatives offerings, rising stablecoin adoption and growing prediction markets activity. However, subdued spot trading volumes and higher expenses may have partially offset these gains.
The recovery in cryptocurrency valuations likely supported assets on platform and blockchain rewards. Per CoinGecko, total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased 39.6% sequentially, while Ethereum prices surged 71%. However, centralized exchange spot trading volumes declined 14.2%, potentially weighing on consumer transaction revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trading volume is pegged at 134 million.
Coinbase's Everything Exchange strategy, including derivatives, equity and pre-IPO perpetuals, and prediction markets, likely supported transaction revenues. Growing derivatives market share and product innovation may have cushioned weaker spot trading activity. Prediction markets, which recorded 106% sequential revenue growth in the second quarter, likely sustained momentum.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for transaction revenues stands at $526.76 million.
Stablecoin revenues are likely to have benefited from higher USDC balances and the Hyperliquid partnership, although reward-sharing expenses may have limited profitability. The renewed Circle agreement provided additional stability.
Growth in Coinbase One subscriptions, onchain lending and Base adoption are likely to have supported subscription and services revenues. Higher cryptocurrency prices may have boosted staking revenues, partially offset by lower protocol reward rates.
Cost reductions and operational efficiencies likely helped contain expenses, although increased USDC rewards, marketing spending and prediction-market-related costs may have offset some savings.
Management expects subscription and services revenues of $500-$580 million and adjusted expenses of $980 million-$1.08 billion. Transaction expenses are projected in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenues.
COIN’s Price Performance & Valuation
The stock outperformed the industry, sector and the S&P 500 in the third quarter of 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 68.81, higher than the industry’s 14.23.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Robinhood Markets (HOOD - Free Report) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR - Free Report) , two other crypto-oriented stocks, are also trading at multiples higher than the industry average.
Investment Thesis
Coinbase is advancing its “everything exchange” strategy by integrating digital assets, equities, commodities and derivatives into a unified trading platform. Expansion into regulated derivatives, prediction markets, tokenized assets and stablecoin infrastructure, alongside partnerships with Webull, Moov, Chainlink and Better Mortgage, should diversify revenues and strengthen its market position. Its growing international footprint further supports geographic diversification and long-term growth. In 2026, Coinbase aims to expand real-world-asset perpetuals, advanced trading tools, decentralized finance infrastructure and opportunities in artificial intelligence and robotics.
Strong liquidity and manageable leverage provide flexibility to fund strategic initiatives. However, cryptocurrency price volatility, elevated expenses, impairment charges and restructuring costs remain concerns. Despite market share gains, challenging industry conditions continue to pressure earnings. In the latest reported quarter, softer retail trading activity reduced transaction revenues, while declining cryptocurrency prices weighed on platform assets and profitability.
What Should Investors Do Now With COIN Stock?
Coinbase aims to expand the crypto ecosystem, grow its spot trading market share among retail and institutional investors, and strengthen its platform. Higher USDC balances and market capitalization, along with relatively stable crypto prices, could drive more consistent revenues.
However, its premium valuation, subdued market volatility, weaker digital asset prices, near-term earnings and revenue pressures, and below-average return on equity pose significant risks. Therefore, investors should remain cautious.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
COIN to Report Q3 Earnings: Time to Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Coinbase Global (COIN - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct.29, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.2 billion, indicating a 37.4% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at a loss of 15 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN’s third-quarter earnings has moved down 66.7% in the past seven days. The estimate suggests a 110.4% year-over-year decrease.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
COIN’s Disappointing Earnings Surprise History
COIN’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, the average negative surprise being 128.56%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for COIN
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Coinbase this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), which increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Coinbase’s Earnings ESP is +146.06%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 7 cents per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 15 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Coinbase Global, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Coinbase Global, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Coinbase Global, Inc. Quote
Zacks Rank: Coinbase currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape COIN’s Q3 Results
Coinbase’s third-quarter 2026 results are likely to benefit from recovering cryptocurrency prices, expanding derivatives offerings, rising stablecoin adoption and growing prediction markets activity. However, subdued spot trading volumes and higher expenses may have partially offset these gains.
The recovery in cryptocurrency valuations likely supported assets on platform and blockchain rewards. Per CoinGecko, total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased 39.6% sequentially, while Ethereum prices surged 71%. However, centralized exchange spot trading volumes declined 14.2%, potentially weighing on consumer transaction revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trading volume is pegged at 134 million.
Coinbase's Everything Exchange strategy, including derivatives, equity and pre-IPO perpetuals, and prediction markets, likely supported transaction revenues. Growing derivatives market share and product innovation may have cushioned weaker spot trading activity. Prediction markets, which recorded 106% sequential revenue growth in the second quarter, likely sustained momentum.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for transaction revenues stands at $526.76 million.
Stablecoin revenues are likely to have benefited from higher USDC balances and the Hyperliquid partnership, although reward-sharing expenses may have limited profitability. The renewed Circle agreement provided additional stability.
Growth in Coinbase One subscriptions, onchain lending and Base adoption are likely to have supported subscription and services revenues. Higher cryptocurrency prices may have boosted staking revenues, partially offset by lower protocol reward rates.
Cost reductions and operational efficiencies likely helped contain expenses, although increased USDC rewards, marketing spending and prediction-market-related costs may have offset some savings.
Management expects subscription and services revenues of $500-$580 million and adjusted expenses of $980 million-$1.08 billion. Transaction expenses are projected in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenues.
COIN’s Price Performance & Valuation
The stock outperformed the industry, sector and the S&P 500 in the third quarter of 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 68.81, higher than the industry’s 14.23.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Robinhood Markets (HOOD - Free Report) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR - Free Report) , two other crypto-oriented stocks, are also trading at multiples higher than the industry average.
Investment Thesis
Coinbase is advancing its “everything exchange” strategy by integrating digital assets, equities, commodities and derivatives into a unified trading platform. Expansion into regulated derivatives, prediction markets, tokenized assets and stablecoin infrastructure, alongside partnerships with Webull, Moov, Chainlink and Better Mortgage, should diversify revenues and strengthen its market position. Its growing international footprint further supports geographic diversification and long-term growth. In 2026, Coinbase aims to expand real-world-asset perpetuals, advanced trading tools, decentralized finance infrastructure and opportunities in artificial intelligence and robotics.
Strong liquidity and manageable leverage provide flexibility to fund strategic initiatives. However, cryptocurrency price volatility, elevated expenses, impairment charges and restructuring costs remain concerns. Despite market share gains, challenging industry conditions continue to pressure earnings. In the latest reported quarter, softer retail trading activity reduced transaction revenues, while declining cryptocurrency prices weighed on platform assets and profitability.
What Should Investors Do Now With COIN Stock?
Coinbase aims to expand the crypto ecosystem, grow its spot trading market share among retail and institutional investors, and strengthen its platform. Higher USDC balances and market capitalization, along with relatively stable crypto prices, could drive more consistent revenues.
However, its premium valuation, subdued market volatility, weaker digital asset prices, near-term earnings and revenue pressures, and below-average return on equity pose significant risks. Therefore, investors should remain cautious.